Allegory · simulated from ACLED, AFP and HRANA reporting

Tehran in Los Angeles

The strike record for Tehran since 28 February 2026, laid onto Los Angeles at the same scale. City view: about 300 strike events in a 24 km circle around City Hall, matching Tehran's municipal core. Tehran Province view: about 740 events in a 74 km circle, matching the capital plus its military-industrial belt, which brings in the South Bay aerospace corridor. Counts, target mix and timeline follow the reporting; exact LA locations are simulated.

636dead in Tehran by 23 March, per Tehran authorities
~1,000 to 1,200estimated dead in Tehran Province by the 8 April ceasefire
~5,700injured in Tehran Province by 16 March, per emergency services
3,468 to 3,636dead across Iran, per the government and HRANA

Day 2249 Oct 2026After the ceasefire

What happened at your address

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How the target mix translates

LA equivalentTehran categoryCityProvince
Tehran Province siteFrom centerLA counterpartFrom City Hall
Defense Ministry and IRGC sites inside the city0 to 12 kmUSC, Cal State LA, Vernon and Commerce suppliers0 to 12 km
Mehrabad airport9 kmLAX19 km
Khojir missile complex25 kmEl Segundo satellite plants and Space Systems Command19 km
Pardis (six dead recovered, 7 Apr)33 kmWhittier21 km
Shahriar (nine killed in one strike, 7 Apr)33 kmTorrance25 km
Parchin military complex37 kmSpace Park, Redondo Beach, and the Long Beach plants25 to 33 km

Method and limits

ACLED counts strike events, not bombs. Several strikes on one place on one day become one event, and intercepted attacks count too. The Israeli military alone reported about 650 munitions over 400 strikes on Tehran in two days of early April, so every dot here can stand for many bombs.

  • City total: the low end of an estimate for Tehran's 22 municipal districts. Province total: the low end of an estimate built from HRANA's share for Tehran Province applied to ACLED's national count. That second figure rests on thinner evidence. ACLED has not published a Tehran-only count.
  • Target mix: AFP's analysis of ACLED data found about a third of strikes on Iran hit identifiable military or IRGC targets and a third had no identified target. ACLED logged nearly 50 targeted killings in residential buildings in the first month. The outer ring leans toward defense industry, as Tehran's does. Other shares are judgment.
  • Timing: heavy phase from 28 February to the 8 April ceasefire, a thinner tail since. Real anchors include police stations hit on days 2 to 4, the state broadcaster on day 3, a church on day 35, and the synagogue, Pardis and Shahriar strikes on day 39.
  • Distances in the site table are approximate. Palmdale and Natanz, like Isfahan, sit outside both circles.
  • Damage radii are open-ground figures from public reporting. Buildings shield some people and add collapse risk for others.
  • Deaths: 503 dead in Tehran Province by 16 March and 636 by 23 March are official figures. The 1,000 to 1,200 by the ceasefire is an extrapolation from that rate and from Tehran's share of the national toll, and could be two to three times higher if military deaths are undercounted. The rate of about 1.5 deaths per strike event divides that estimate by about 740 province events, so it is rough.
  • Population figure uses about 3,000 residents per km² of land, near LA's citywide average. Central neighborhoods are denser.

Sources: ACLED Iran war updates, ACLED on civilian harm, AFP analysis via Al-Monitor, HRANA day 30, Al Jazeera on 7 April, RNS on the synagogue and church, Tehran toll, 16 March, Tehran toll, 23 March, national casualty figures, NYT bomb-effects analysis.